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Freeway Travel Time Estimation Using Sequential Link Regression Modeling
Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Norrköping, Sweden.
Blekinge Institute of Technology, Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Karlskrona, Sweden.
Malmö University, Faculty of Technology and Society (TS), Department of Computer Science and Media Technology (DVMT).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7773-9944
2025 (English)In: IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Proceedings, ITSC, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. , 2025, p. 303-308Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Accurate travel time estimations are essential for traffic analysis and enable modern applications such as dynamic route guidance and traffic control. With the growing availability of high-resolution traffic data from GPS-enabled devices and probe vehicles, advanced models have been developed to estimate travel times more precisely. This paper proposes a sequential link estimation method for trip-level travel time estimation. The method exploits how travel times on one link are influenced by the preceding link and influence the subsequent link along a route. The method uses a chain of regression estimation models where each link's estimated travel time depends on the travel time of the adjacent link. Each estimated value is passed as input to the model for the next link, creating a chain of conditional estimates that extends from an arbitrary link to both the beginning and end of a freeway. We evaluate the proposed travel time estimation method using real-world traffic data from freeways in Sweden. The results show an average percentage error as low as 2.38 percent with a standard deviation of 1.88 percent, indicating highly accurate travel time estimates.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc. , 2025. p. 303-308
Keywords [en]
regression prediction model, sequential link modeling, Travel time estimation
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-83973DOI: 10.1109/ITSC60802.2025.11423489Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105036994791ISBN: 9798331524180 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mau-83973DiVA, id: diva2:2057161
Conference
28th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2025, 18-21 Nov 2025, Gold Coast, Australia
Available from: 2026-05-04 Created: 2026-05-04 Last updated: 2026-05-06Bibliographically approved

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Holmgren, Johan

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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
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  • nn-NB
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