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Bayesian propensity score matching in automotive embedded software engineering
Volvo Cars, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Computer Science and Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Computer Science and Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Malmö University, Faculty of Technology and Society (TS), Department of Computer Science and Media Technology (DVMT).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7700-1816
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2021 (English)In: 2021 28th Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference (APSEC), IEEE, 2021Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Randomised field experiments, such as A/B testing, have long been the gold standard for evaluating the value that new software brings to customers. However, running randomised field experiments is not always desired, possible or even ethical in the development of automotive embedded software. In the face of such restrictions, we propose the use of the Bayesian propensity score matching technique for causal inference of observational studies in the automotive domain. In this paper, we present a method based on the Bayesian propensity score matching framework, applied in the unique setting of automotive software engineering. This method is used to generate balanced control and treatment groups from an observational online evaluation and estimate causal treatment effects from the software changes, even with limited samples in the treatment group. We exemplify the method with a proof-of-concept in the automotive domain. In the example, we have a larger control (Nc = 1100) fleet of cars using the current software and a small treatment fleet (Nt = 38), in which we introduce a new software variant. We demonstrate a scenario that shipping of a new software to all users is restricted, as a result, a fully randomised experiment could not be conducted. Therefore, we utilised the Bayesian propensity score matching method with 14 observed covariates as inputs. The results show more balanced groups, suitable for estimating causal treatment effects from the collected observational data. We describe the method in detail and share our configuration. Furthermore, we discuss how can such a method be used for online evaluation of new software utilising small groups of samples.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
IEEE, 2021.
Series
Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference, ISSN 1530-1362, E-ISSN 2640-0715
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-51532DOI: 10.1109/apsec53868.2021.00031ISI: 000802192700024Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85126195400ISBN: 978-1-6654-3784-4 (electronic)ISBN: 978-1-6654-3785-1 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mau-51532DiVA, id: diva2:1659197
Conference
2021 28th Asia-Pacific Software Engineering Conference (APSEC), Taipei, Taiwan, 6-9 Dec. 2021
Available from: 2022-05-19 Created: 2022-05-19 Last updated: 2025-08-14Bibliographically approved

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Olsson, Helena Holmström

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