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Predictive Energy and Exergy Assessment of Photovoltaic Systems Under Dynamic Environmental Conditions Using Machine Learning
Municipality of Dronten, De Rede, 1, 8251 ER Dronten, The Netherlands; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8A, 3584 CB Utrecht, The Netherlands.
Malmö University, Faculty of Technology and Society (TS), Department of Computer Science and Media Technology (DVMT). Malmö University, Sustainable Digitalisation Research Centre (SDRC). Malmö University, Biofilms Research Centre for Biointerfaces (BRCB). Department of Computer Engineering, Bitlis Eren University, Bitlis 13100, Türkiye.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2223-3927
2026 (English)In: Applied Sciences, E-ISSN 2076-3417, Vol. 16, no 10, article id 5049Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study evaluates the performance of a commercial silicon-based photovoltaic (PV) module under varying environmental conditions, including solar irradiance, module and ambient temperatures, humidity, and wind speed. Key performance indicators such as daily and lifetime energy output, CO2 reduction, and potential income were analyzed. Machine learning techniques, including Linear Regression (LR), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Random Forest (RF), and XGBoost, were employed to predict photovoltaic (PV) efficiency under varying environmental conditions. The results indicate that solar irradiance is the primary driver of energy production, while elevated temperatures and high humidity reduce efficiency, and wind speed provides minor cooling benefits. Among the models, XGBoost achieved the highest predictive accuracy (Test R2 = 0.9967), followed by RF and ANN, whereas LR underperformed due to a limited ability to capture nonlinear interactions. These findings highlight the critical influence of environmental and electrical factors on PV performance and demonstrate the effectiveness of advanced machine learning techniques, particularly XGBoost, in optimizing energy output and supporting sustainable energy planning.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI , 2026. Vol. 16, no 10, article id 5049
Keywords [en]
photovoltaic systems, PV efficiency, machine learning, XGBoost, Random Forest, Neural Networks, regression models, energy performance, exergy analysis, renewable energy optimization
National Category
Energy Systems
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-84822DOI: 10.3390/app16105049ISI: 001774297900001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105040212509OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mau-84822DiVA, id: diva2:2064916
Available from: 2026-06-02 Created: 2026-06-02 Last updated: 2026-06-15Bibliographically approved

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Akin, Erdal

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