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Multi-Criteria Model Predictive Controller for Hybrid Heating Systems in Buildings
Malmö University, Faculty of Technology and Society (TS), Department of Computer Science and Media Technology (DVMT). Malmö University, Sustainable Digitalisation Research Centre (SDRC).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6887-2142
Malmö University, Faculty of Technology and Society (TS), Department of Computer Science and Media Technology (DVMT). Malmö University, Sustainable Digitalisation Research Centre (SDRC).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0998-6585
Malmö University, Faculty of Technology and Society (TS), Department of Computer Science and Media Technology (DVMT). Malmö University, Sustainable Digitalisation Research Centre (SDRC).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2763-8085
Malmö University, Faculty of Technology and Society (TS), Department of Computer Science and Media Technology (DVMT). Malmö University, Sustainable Digitalisation Research Centre (SDRC).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0326-0556
2025 (English)In: Energies, E-ISSN 1996-1073, Vol. 18, no 21, p. 5839-5839Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

With more hybrid heating systems available, there is a need to optimize energy use intelligently from the end-consumer perspective. This paper focuses on a multi-criteria heating system optimization to optimize cost, carbon emission, and comfort level of building occupants. A discrete Multi-Objective Model Predictive Controller (MO-MPC) algorithm is proposed to optimally utilize two heating sources connected to a building, namely district heating (DH) and a building-integrated electrical heat pump (HP). The model is tested on a real-world building case simulated with a gray box building model. The results are compared to a conventional PID controller as well as the MPC scheme, each with a single heating input, and eight different cases are constructed to make this comparison more visible. The results indicate that, using MO-MPC, a cost saving of up to 10% and emission saving of up to 13% can be reached without additional thermal discomfort, while the potential savings on cost and emission with the hybrid system can be up to 25% and 77%, respectively. Further, a sensitivity analysis on price and emission parameters is conducted to investigate the changes in the provided solution.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
MDPI AG , 2025. Vol. 18, no 21, p. 5839-5839
Keywords [en]
heat pump, district heating, model predictive control, multi-objective optimization, gray-box modeling, hybrid heating
National Category
Building Technologies
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-80614DOI: 10.3390/en18215839ISI: 001612549700001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105021588839OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mau-80614DiVA, id: diva2:2013508
Available from: 2025-11-13 Created: 2025-11-13 Last updated: 2026-03-10Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Hybrid energy system optimization: towards intelligent and sustainable heating control
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Hybrid energy system optimization: towards intelligent and sustainable heating control
2025 (English)Licentiate thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

As the on-site heating systems (such as heat pumps, renewable energy sources) are receiving more attention in terms of practical installation and academic research, the future of heating systems is shifting towards hybrid solutions. This doctoral research explores intelligent control strategies for integrating mainly district heating (DH) and heat pumps (HPs) in residential and commercial buildings. The study focuses on enhancing energy management through Model Predictive Control (MPC), a robust closed-loop optimization method, augmented with artificial intelligence (AI) and data-driven algorithms. While MPC requires accurate building models, AI integration enables adaptive learning from historical data, improving decision-making under uncertainty. A key innovation of this work is the multi-criteria optimization framework, which considers building occupant thermal comfort, environmental impact, and cost-efficiency. Despite growing interest in hybrid systems, the optimal integration of DH and HPs remains underexplored. This research aims to fill that gap by developing a trustworthy and intelligent control system validated using open datasets and real-world data. The outcome will support endusers and building managers in making informed energy decisions, contributing to sustainable and efficient urban energy systems.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Malmö University Press, 2025. p. 27
Series
Studies in Computer Science ; 39
Keywords
Heat pump, District heating, Model predictive control, Multi-objective optimization, Gray-box modeling, Hybrid heating
National Category
Energy Engineering
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-81082 (URN)10.24834/isbn.9789178777075 (DOI)978-91-7877-706-8 (ISBN)978-91-7877-707-5 (ISBN)
Presentation
2025-12-15, A0607, Niagara, Malmö University, Malmö, 13:15 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

Paper IV in dissertation as manuscript and not included in the fulltext online.

Available from: 2025-12-09 Created: 2025-12-09 Last updated: 2025-12-17Bibliographically approved

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Soleimani, AliDavidsson, PaulMalekian, RezaSpalazzese, Romina

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