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Optimization and Simulation Modeling for Improved Analysis and planning of Prehospital Stroke Care
Malmö University, Faculty of Technology and Society (TS), Department of Computer Science and Media Technology (DVMT).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2769-4826
2025 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Rapid treatment is crucial for minimizing the consequences of a stroke. However, logistical challenges and the complexity of accurate stroke diagnosis often impede timely and effective treatment. One way to reduce time to treatment is the use of so-called mobile stroke units (MSUs), which are specialized ambulances equipped to diagnose and treat stroke patients on site. The adequate planning and optimization of prehospital stroke transport policies involving MSUs can help reduce delays in accessing treatment. Mathematical optimization and simulation are useful approaches for optimizing and assessing different stroke transport policies without endangering patient’s health.

The aim of this thesis is to explore how optimization and simulation can improve the analysis and planning of prehospital stroke care. Specifically, optimization is used to determine optimal MSU placements, while simulation is applied to evaluate stroke transport policies, including those involving MSUs. To achieve this aim, the thesis is structured around four main objectives, in which we develop and analyze a number of different optimization and simulation models. First, the MSU placement problem is solved using an exhaustive search algorithm and formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model to determine optimal MSU placements. The objective of solving this problem is to make a trade-off between efficiency and equity, ensuring maximum population coverage and equitable service across a region. Second, macro-level and micro- level simulation models are proposed to evaluate various stroke transport policies, including MSUs. Third, a simulation modeling framework is introduced to enable the construction of discrete event simulation models for emergency medical services (EMS) policy analysis, supporting flexible and adaptive simulations of real-world EMS operations. The framework incorporates various decision policies, such as emergency vehicle selection, dispatch type (single and co-dispatch) selection, and hospital selection, allowing for the evaluation of stroke transport policies across different stroke types. Lastly, dynamic travel time calculations and machine learning-based travel time estimations are integrated into the framework to enhance the flexibility and reliability of EMS simulations.

Through scenario studies conducted in Sweden’s Southern Healthcare Region, this research demonstrates how optimization and simulation can support effective stroke transport policy planning and improve decision-making in prehospital stroke care. The identified MSU placements, along with the evaluated dispatch policies, highlight significant potential for reducing the time to diagnosis and treatment for different types of strokes. Faster time to treatment not only enhances overall stroke care delivery but also improves patient outcomes by reducing stroke-related disabilities. The findings underscore the value of these approaches in guiding EMS policy design, ultimately contributing to better patient outcomes and reduced social impacts of stroke. The results of this thesis aim to assist public health authorities in making informed decisions to optimize prehospital stroke care.

Rapid treatment is crucial for minimizing the consequences of a stroke. However, logistical challenges and the complexity of accurate stroke diagnosis often impede timely and effective treatment. One way to reduce time to treatment is the use of so-called mobile stroke units (MSUs), which are specialized ambulances equipped to diagnose and treat stroke patients on site. The adequate planning and optimization of prehospital stroke transport policies involving MSUs can help reduce delays in accessing treatment. Mathematical optimization and simulation are useful approaches for optimizing and assessing different stroke transport policies without endangering patient’s health. The aim of this thesis is to explore how optimization and simulation can improve the analysis and planning of prehospital stroke care. Specifically, optimization is used to determine optimal MSU placements, while simulation is applied to evaluate stroke transport policies, including those involving MSUs. To achieve this aim, the thesis is structured around four main objectives, in which we develop and analyze a number of different optimization and simulation models. First, the MSU placement problem is solved using an exhaustive search algorithm and formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming model to determine optimal MSU placements. The objective of solving this problem is to make a trade-off between efficiency and equity, ensuring maximum population coverage and equitable service across a region. Second, macro-level and micro- level simulation models are proposed to evaluate various stroke transport policies, including MSUs. Third, a simulation modeling framework is introduced to enable the construction of discrete event simulation models for emergency medical services (EMS) policy analysis, supporting flexible and adaptive simulations of real-world EMS operations. The framework incorporates various decision policies, such as emergency vehicle selection, dispatch type (single and co-dispatch) selection, and hospital selection, allowing for the evaluation of stroke transport policies across different stroke types. Lastly, dynamic travel time calculations and machine learning-based travel time estimations are integrated into the framework to enhance the flexibility and reliability of EMS simulations. Through scenario studies conducted in Sweden’s Southern Healthcare Region, this research demonstrates how optimization and simulation can support effective stroke transport policy planning and improve decision-making in prehospital stroke care. The identified MSU placements, along with the evaluated dispatch policies, highlight significant potential for reducing the time to diagnosis and treatment for different types of strokes. Faster time to treatment not only enhances overall stroke care delivery but also improves patient outcomes by reducing stroke-related disabilities. The findings underscore the value of these approaches in guiding EMS policy design, ultimately contributing to better patient outcomes and reduced social impacts of stroke. The results of this thesis aim to assist public health authorities in making informed decisions to optimize prehospital stroke care.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Malmö: Malmö University Press, 2025. , p. 219
Series
Studies in Computer Science ; 35
Keywords [en]
Stroke Transport Policy, Mobile Stroke Unit, MSU, Optimization, Simulation, Prehospital Stroke Care, Modeling Framework, Emergency Medical Services, Dynamic Travel Time, Machine Learning, Ambulance Travel Time Estimation
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-74594DOI: 10.24834/isbn.9789178775972ISBN: 978-91-7877-596-5 (print)ISBN: 978-91-7877-597-2 (electronic)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mau-74594DiVA, id: diva2:1942926
Public defence
2025-03-27, NIC0319, Niagara, Malmö University, Malmö, 14:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Note

Available from: 2025-03-07 Created: 2025-03-07 Last updated: 2025-03-13Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Mobile stroke units for acute stroke care in the south of sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Mobile stroke units for acute stroke care in the south of sweden
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2021 (English)In: Cogent Engineering, E-ISSN 2331-1916, Vol. 8, no 1, article id 1874084Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A Mobile stroke unit (MSU) is a type of ambulance deployed to promote the rapid delivery of stroke care. We present a computational study using a time to treatment estimation model to analyze the potential benefits of using MSUs in Sweden's Southern Health Care Region (SHR). In particular, we developed two scenarios (MSU1 and MSU2) each including three MSUs, which we compared with a baseline scenario containing only regular ambulances. For each MSU scenario, we assessed how much the expected time to treatment is estimated to decrease for the whole region and each subregion of SHR, and how the population is expected to benefit from the deployment of MSUs. For example, the average time to treatment in SHR was decreased with 20,4 and 15,6 minutes, respectively, in the two MSU scenarios. Moreover, our computational results show that the locations of the MSUs significantly influence what benefits can be expected. While MSU1 is expected to improve the situation for a higher share of the population, MSU2 is expected to have a higher impact on the patients who currently have the longest time to treatment.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2021
Keywords
driving time estimation, mobile stroke unit, MSU, stroke transport, time to treatment
National Category
Public Health, Global Health and Social Medicine
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-41078 (URN)10.1080/23311916.2021.1874084 (DOI)000613349600001 ()2-s2.0-85100213272 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2021-03-09 Created: 2021-03-09 Last updated: 2025-03-07Bibliographically approved
2. An Optimization Model for the Tradeoff Between Efficiency and Equity for Mobile Stroke Unit Placement
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An Optimization Model for the Tradeoff Between Efficiency and Equity for Mobile Stroke Unit Placement
2021 (English)In: Innovation in Medicine and Healthcare: Proceedings of 9th KES-InMed 2021, Springer, 2021, p. 183-193Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

A mobile stroke unit (MSU) is an ambulance, where stroke patients can be diagnosed and treated. Recently, placement of MSUs has been studied focusing on either maximum population coverage or equal service for all patients, termed efficiency and equity, respectively. In this study, we propose an unconstrained optimization model for the placement of MSUs, designed to introduce a tradeoff between efficiency and equity. The tradeoff is based on the concepts of weighted average time to treatment and the time difference between the expected time to treatment for different geographical areas. We conduct a case-study for Sweden’s Southern Health care Region (SHR), generating three scenarios (MSU1, MSU2, and MSU3) including 1, 2, and 3 MSUs, respectively. We show that our proposed optimization model can tune the tradeoff between the efficiency and equity perspectives for the MSU(s) allocation. This enables a high level of equal service for most inhabitants, as well as reducing the time to treatment for most inhabitants of a geographic region. In particular, placing three MSUs in the SHR with the proposed tradeoff, the share of inhabitants who are expected to receive treatment within an hour potentially improved by about a factor of 14 in our model.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2021
Series
Smart Innovation, Systems and Technologies, ISSN 2190-3018, E-ISSN 2190-3026 ; 242
Keywords
Driving time estimation, Efficient coverage, Equal treatment, Mobile stroke unit, Time to treatment, Tradeoff function, Efficiency, Optimization, Equal services, Expected time, Geographical area, Optimization modeling, Stroke patients, Time-differences, Unconstrained optimization, Weighted averages, Patient treatment
National Category
Communication Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-45147 (URN)10.1007/978-981-16-3013-2_15 (DOI)2-s2.0-85111101237 (Scopus ID)9789811630125 (ISBN)
Conference
9th KES-InMed 2021
Available from: 2021-08-23 Created: 2021-08-23 Last updated: 2025-03-07Bibliographically approved
3. A Micro-Level Simulation Model for Analyzing the Use of MSUs in Southern Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Micro-Level Simulation Model for Analyzing the Use of MSUs in Southern Sweden
2022 (English)In: Procedia Computer Science, E-ISSN 1877-0509, Vol. 198, p. 132-139Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A mobile stroke unit (MSU) is a special type of ambulance, where stroke patients can be diagnosed and provided intravenous treatment, hence allowing to cut down the time to treatment for stroke patients. We present a discrete event simulation (DES) model to study the potential benefits of using MSUs in the southern health care region of Sweden (SHR). We included the activities and actions used in the SHR for stroke patient transportation as events in the DES model, and we generated a synthetic set of stroke patients as input for the simulation model. In a scenario study, we compared two scenarios, including three MSUs each, with the current situation, having only regular ambulances. We also performed a sensitivity analysis to further evaluate the presented DES model. For both MSU scenarios, our simulation results indicate that the average time to treatment is expected to decrease for the whole region and for each municipality of SHR. For example, the average time to treatment in the SHR is reduced from 1.31h in the baseline scenario to 1.20h and 1.23h for the two MSU scenarios. In addition, the share of stroke patients who are expected to receive treatment within one hour is increased by a factor of about 3 for both MSU scenarios.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2022
Keywords
Ischemic stroke; stroke transport; MSU; DES; time to treatment; stroke logistics
National Category
Computational Mathematics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-54479 (URN)10.1016/j.procs.2021.12.220 (DOI)2-s2.0-85124617439 (Scopus ID)
Conference
11th International Conference on Current and Future Trends of Information and Communication Technologies in Healthcare (ICTH 2021) November 1-4, 2021, Leuven, Belgium
Available from: 2022-08-22 Created: 2022-08-22 Last updated: 2025-03-07Bibliographically approved
4. A Framework for Constructing Discrete Event Simulation Models for Emergency Medical Service Policy Analysis
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Framework for Constructing Discrete Event Simulation Models for Emergency Medical Service Policy Analysis
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2022 (English)In: Procedia Computer Science, E-ISSN 1877-0509, Vol. 210, p. 133-140Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Constructing simulation models can be a complex and time-consuming task, in particular if the models are constructed from scratch or if a general-purpose simulation modeling tool is used. In this paper, we propose a model construction framework, which aims to simplify the process of constructing discrete event simulation models for emergency medical service (EMS) policy analysis. The main building blocks used in the framework are a set of general activities that can be used to represent different EMS care chains modeled as flowcharts. The framework allows to build models only by specifying input data, including demographic and statistical data, and providing a care chain of activities and decisions. In a case study, we evaluated the framework by using it to construct a model for the simulation of the EMS activities related to acute stroke. Our evaluation shows that the predefined activities included in the framework are sufficient to build a simulation model for the rather complex case of acute stroke.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2022
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-56003 (URN)10.1016/j.procs.2022.10.129 (DOI)2-s2.0-85144819456 (Scopus ID)
Conference
12th International Conference on Current and Future Trends of Information and Communication Technologies in Health care (ICTH 2022) October 26-28, 2022, Leuven, Belgium
Available from: 2022-11-14 Created: 2022-11-14 Last updated: 2025-03-07Bibliographically approved
5. An Optimization Model for the Placement of Mobile Stroke Units
Open this publication in new window or tab >>An Optimization Model for the Placement of Mobile Stroke Units
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2023 (English)In: Advanced Research in Technologies, Information, Innovation and Sustainability: Third International Conference, ARTIIS 2023, Madrid, Spain, October 18–20, 2023, Proceedings, Part I / [ed] Teresa Guarda; Filipe Portela; Jose Maria Diaz-Nafria, Springer, 2023, p. 297-310Conference paper, Published paper (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Mobile Stroke Units (MSUs) are specialized ambulances that can diagnose and treat stroke patients; hence, reducing the time to treatment for stroke patients. Optimal placement of MSUs in a geographic region enables to maximize access to treatment for stroke patients. We contribute a mathematical model to optimally place MSUs in a geographic region. The objective function of the model takes the tradeoff perspective, balancing between the efficiency and equity perspectives for the MSU placement. Solving the optimization problem enables to optimize the placement of MSUs for the chosen tradeoff between the efficiency and equity perspectives. We applied the model to the Blekinge and Kronoberg counties of Sweden to illustrate the applicability of our model. The experimental findings show both the correctness of the suggested model and the benefits of placing MSUs in the considered regions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2023
Series
Communications in Computer and Information Science, ISSN 1865-0929, E-ISSN 1865-0937 ; 1935
Keywords
Optimization, MILP, Time to Treatment, Mobile Stroke Unit (MSU), MSU Placement
National Category
Neurology Computational Mathematics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-64865 (URN)10.1007/978-3-031-48858-0_24 (DOI)2-s2.0-85180781530 (Scopus ID)978-3-031-48857-3 (ISBN)978-3-031-48858-0 (ISBN)
Conference
Advanced Research in Technologies, Information, Innovation and Sustainability, Third International Conference, ARTIIS 2023, Madrid, Spain, October 18–20, 2023
Available from: 2024-01-08 Created: 2024-01-08 Last updated: 2025-03-07Bibliographically approved
6. Simulation-based Analysis of Co-dispatching in Prehospital Stroke Care
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Simulation-based Analysis of Co-dispatching in Prehospital Stroke Care
2024 (English)In: Procedia Computer Science, E-ISSN 1877-0509, Vol. 238, p. 412-419Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A mobile stroke unit (MSU) is a specialized ambulance, enabling to shorten the time to diagnosis and treatment for stroke patients. In the current paper, we present a simulation-based approach to study the potential impacts of collaborative use of regular ambulances and MSUs in prehospital transportation for stroke patients, denoted as co-dispatching. We integrated a co-dispatch policy in an existing modeling framework for constructing emergency medical services simulation models. In a case study, we applied the extended framework to southern Sweden to evaluate the effectiveness of using the co-dispatch policy for different types of stroke. The results indicate reduced time to diagnosis and treatment for stroke patients when using the co-dispatch policy compared to the situation where either a regular ambulance or an MSU is assigned for a stroke incident.

 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024
Keywords
Co-dispatch, MSU, Simulation, Framework, Stroke, Transportation
National Category
Computer Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-70240 (URN)10.1016/j.procs.2024.06.042 (DOI)2-s2.0-85199555813 (Scopus ID)
Conference
15th International Conference on Ambient Systems, Networks and Technologies (ANT), Hasselt, Belgium, April 23-25, 2024
Available from: 2024-08-15 Created: 2024-08-15 Last updated: 2025-03-07Bibliographically approved
7. Implementing Dynamic Travel Time Calculation in EMS Simulations: Impacts on Prehospital Stroke Care and Transportation
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Implementing Dynamic Travel Time Calculation in EMS Simulations: Impacts on Prehospital Stroke Care and Transportation
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2025 (English)In: Procedia Computer Science, E-ISSN 1877-0509, Vol. 256, p. 781-788Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Preparing travel time data can be a time-consuming process, which greatly limits the flexibility of transport simulation models. In the current paper, we present an approach to integrate a routing engine locally in an existing modeling framework, hence enabling to dynamically calculate travel times in the constructed emergency medical services (EMS) simulation models. This integration eliminates the need for the pre-calculation typically required to prepare travel time data. Using the extended framework, we developed an EMS simulation model for stroke patients, which we applied in a scenario study to southern Sweden. This allowed us to evaluate the potential benefits of using dynamic travel time calculations in prehospital stroke care. The experimental results, supported by comparisons with pre-calculated travel times, confirm the effectiveness of our approach in integrating dynamic travel time calculations into the framework. Moreover, the results of our evaluation indicate that including this functionality in simulation models can provide more realistic results. Finally, our approach for local implementation of dynamic travel time calculations is faster and less restricted compared to using online services.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2025
Keywords
Framework, Dynamic travel time, EMS, Travel data calculation, Simulation model
National Category
Transport Systems and Logistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-74647 (URN)10.1016/j.procs.2025.02.179 (DOI)
Conference
HCist - International Conference on Health and Social Care Information Systems and Technologies, Funchal, Madeira, Portugal, November 13-15, 2024
Available from: 2025-03-12 Created: 2025-03-12 Last updated: 2025-03-12Bibliographically approved
8. Integrating Machine Learning-Based Ambulance Travel Time Estimation into an Emergency Medical Services Simulation Modeling Framework
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Integrating Machine Learning-Based Ambulance Travel Time Estimation into an Emergency Medical Services Simulation Modeling Framework
2024 (English)In: Procedia Computer Science, E-ISSN 1877-0509, Vol. 251, p. 479-486Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Travel time estimation is an integral component of emergency medical services (EMS) simulations due to the need to calculate ambulance transport times for patients. We present a study where we integrated a machine learning (ML) based ambulance travel time estimation module into an EMS simulation modeling framework, aiming to explore the potential benefits of using ML-based travel time estimations in emergency simulations. To illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, we used the framework to construct an EMS simulation model for stroke patients and applied it in a scenario study covering Skåne County, Sweden. The result of the simulation shows differences in ambulance driving times when using the ML-based module compared to existing routing engines designed for passenger cars. The observed differences emphasize the impacts of integrating ML-based estimations into EMS simulations.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Elsevier, 2024
Keywords
Simulation; Ambulance travel time estimation; Machine learning; Emergency medical services; Modeling framework.
National Category
Communication Systems
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-73679 (URN)10.1016/j.procs.2024.11.136 (DOI)2-s2.0-85214970830 (Scopus ID)
Conference
The 14th International Conference on Current and Future Trends of Information andCommunication Technologies in Healthcare (ICTH 2024)October 28-30, 2024, Leuven, Belgium
Available from: 2025-02-07 Created: 2025-02-07 Last updated: 2025-03-07Bibliographically approved

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Amouzad Mahdiraji, Saeid

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