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Ambulatory risk assessment and intervention in the prison services: Using Interactive Voice Response to assess and intervene on acute dynamic risk among prisoners on parole
Malmö University, Faculty of Health and Society (HS), Department of Criminology (KR).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4542-9463
2018 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The transition from prison to society is a challenging period for offenders released from prison. Recidivism rates are high, and the offender’s situation can change rapidly. Advances in technology in recent decades have provided new ways for correctional agencies to provide the level of supervision and immediacy needed to help prisoners to successfully re-enter society. One such area of advance is the widespread use of mobile phones and related developments in communication technologies, such as Interactive Voice Response (IVR), an automated telephony system. The overall aim of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility of using IVR to assess and intervene on everyday stress-related acute risk factors for crime among prisoners on parole. Paroled offenders (N=108) performed daily assessment during their first 30 days after leaving prison. Before release, they also completed a baseline assessment of stable risk factors, including personality, substance use problems, and mental health problems. Data on criminal recidivism one year following parole was collected from the Swedish Prison and Parole Service. After release, all subjects were called daily and answered assessment questions. Based on the content of their daily assessments, subjects in the intervention group received immediate feedback and a recommendation by automated telephony, and their probation officers also received a daily report by email. Although the intervention had no effect on criminal recidivism, the intervention group showed greater improvement than the control group on several of the acute dynamic risk factors studied. Several of these factors could predict criminal recidivism with marginal accuracy, and could provide incremental predictive validity beyond the baseline risk level of stable risk factors, i.e. problematic drug use and impulsiveness trait. In conclusion, IVR may be a feasible way to assess and intervene on daily stress-related acute dynamic risk factors among prisoners on parole.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Malmö University , 2018.
Series
Malmö University Health and Society Dissertations, ISSN 1653-5383 ; 2018:2
Keywords [en]
acute dynamic risk, intervention, paroled offenders, prediction, randomized controlled trial, recidivism
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-7356Local ID: 24452ISBN: 978-91-7104-896-7 (print)ISBN: 978-91-7104-897-4 (print)OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mau-7356DiVA, id: diva2:1404271
Available from: 2020-02-28 Created: 2020-02-28 Last updated: 2020-07-15Bibliographically approved
List of papers
1. Daily Automated Telephone Assessment and Intervention Improved 1-Month Outcome in Paroled Offenders
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Daily Automated Telephone Assessment and Intervention Improved 1-Month Outcome in Paroled Offenders
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2020 (English)In: International journal of offender therapy and comparative criminology, ISSN 0306-624X, E-ISSN 1552-6933, Vol. 64, no 8, p. 735-752Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This randomized trial evaluates whether automated telephony could be used to perform daily assessments in paroled offenders (N = 108) during their first 30 days after leaving prison. All subjects were called daily and answered assessment questions. Based on the content of their daily assessments, subjects in the intervention group received immediate feedback and a recommendation by automated telephony, and their probation officers also received a daily report by email. The outcome variables were analyzed using linear mixed models. The intervention group showed greater improvement than the control group in the summary scores (M = 9.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.5, 18.7], p = .038), in mental symptoms (M = 4.6, CI = [0.2, 9.0], p = .042), in alcohol drinking (M = 0.8, CI = [0.1, 1.4], p = .031), in drug use (M = 1.0, CI = [0.5, 1.6], p = .000), and in most stressful daily event (M = 1.9, CI = [1.1, 2.7], p = .000). In conclusion, automated telephony may be used to follow up and to give interventions, resulting in reduced stress and drug use, in paroled offenders.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2020
National Category
Psychiatry
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-14589 (URN)10.1177/0306624X14526800 (DOI)000532854600001 ()24626145 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85084398443 (Scopus ID)18160 (Local ID)18160 (Archive number)18160 (OAI)
Available from: 2020-03-30 Created: 2020-03-30 Last updated: 2024-02-05Bibliographically approved
2. Daily Assessment of Acute Dynamic Risk in Paroled Offenders: Prediction, Predictive Accuracy and Intervention Effect
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Daily Assessment of Acute Dynamic Risk in Paroled Offenders: Prediction, Predictive Accuracy and Intervention Effect
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2017 (English)In: Psychiatry, Psychology and Law, ISSN 1321-8719, E-ISSN 1934-1687, Vol. 24, no 5, p. 715-729Article in journal (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Few studies have assessed acute dynamic risk repeatedly among paroled offenders to investigate the relationship between changes in acute dynamic risk and recidivism in crime. The present study investigates whether one-month changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony while the participants were still in prison and over 30 consecutive days following parole, predict one-year criminal recidivism, including its predictive accuracy. The study also investigates whether a brief feedback intervention in conjunction with the daily assessments reduces recidivism compared to an assessment-only control group. Changes in five risk factors were found to be associated with increased risk of criminal recidivism after controlling for the results in prison, the initial value after parole, and the intervention. The predictive accuracy is marginally accurate: Summary score (AUC) = .666; Level of stress (AHSS) = .644; Psychiatric symptoms (SCL-8D) = .641; Anxiety symptoms = .673; Severity of most stressful daily event = .690. No differences in one-year recidivism rates were established between the intervention group and the control group. The study shows that daily assessments can usefully be made of dynamic risk factors in paroled offenders.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2017
Keywords
acute dynamic risk, intervention, paroled offenders, prediction, predictive accuracy, randomised controlled trial, recidivism
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-14836 (URN)10.1080/13218719.2017.1308219 (DOI)000416581400006 ()31983984 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85018255351 (Scopus ID)22573 (Local ID)22573 (Archive number)22573 (OAI)
Available from: 2020-03-30 Created: 2020-03-30 Last updated: 2024-02-05Bibliographically approved
3. Using self-report inventories to assess recidivism risk among prisoners about to be released on parole supervision in Sweden
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Using self-report inventories to assess recidivism risk among prisoners about to be released on parole supervision in Sweden
2017 (English)In: Journal of Scandinavian Studies in Criminology and Crime Prevention, ISSN 1404-3858, E-ISSN 1651-2340, Vol. 18, no 2, p. 191-199Article in journal (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

Prison release planning is rarely based on adequate assessment using evidence-based instruments. This study uses well-established self-reports for screening of problem severity and for predicting recidivism, measured as reconvictions during one-year following release, in prisoners about to be conditionally released on probation in Sweden between 2009 and 2010. One Hundred and six prisoners completed the following measures: Karolinska Scales of Personality, Hopkins Symptom Checklist-25, Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test, Drug Use Disorders Identification Test. Results show frequent mental health and substance use problems and high scores on the KSP psychopathy factor. Anxiety and problematic drug use were the two most important factors associated with one-year recidivism. Prior to release, self-reports could be useful for screening of problem severity, and for predicting recidivism.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2017
Keywords
Self-report, risk factor, screening, prediction, precidivism, parole
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-14874 (URN)10.1080/14043858.2017.1386441 (DOI)2-s2.0-85030719330 (Scopus ID)23532 (Local ID)23532 (Archive number)23532 (OAI)
Available from: 2020-03-30 Created: 2020-03-30 Last updated: 2024-02-05Bibliographically approved
4. Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole
2020 (English)In: Psychology, Crime and Law, ISSN 1068-316X, E-ISSN 1477-2744, Vol. 26, no 6, p. 614-630Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study investigates the incremental validity of changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony over 30 consecutive days following parole, for predicting time to recidivism during the following year. Before release, the participants completed self-report assessment of some stable risk factors - impulsiveness and history of problematic substance use - as well as an assessment of symptoms of anxiety experienced during the weeks prior to release. Analysis of the baseline assessments showed that impulsiveness and a history of problematic substance use, but not pre-release symptoms of anxiety, were associated with recidivism during the parole year. Growth modelling using a linear mixed model was used to assess whether inmates on parole showed changes in acute dynamic risk factors during the first month following release. Individual growth model slopes and intercept were then extracted and used as covariates in a series of Cox regression analyses to test whether changes in acute dynamic risk factors could provide incremental predictive validity beyond baseline stable risk factors. Changes in five dynamic risk factors were associated with an increased risk of recidivism, of which daily drug use and daily summary score showed incremental predictive improvement beyond impulsiveness and history of problematic drug use.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2020
National Category
Psychiatry
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-13833 (URN)10.1080/1068316X.2019.1708356 (DOI)000505442600001 ()2-s2.0-85078631030 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2020-03-24 Created: 2020-03-24 Last updated: 2024-02-05Bibliographically approved

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Vasiljevic, Zoran

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