Abstract

Military expenditure across the globe drastically increased in 2022 and 2023. These were caused primarily by growing military tensions in the Indo-Pacific region and Europe. Interstate military tensions in these regions have led to countries such as Australia (Indo-Pacific) and Sweden (Europe) explicitly preparing for war within a timeframe of three to five years. The topic’s relevance to Peace and Conflict Studies is that states prepare for ‘old’ or interstate wars. Little research has been done on this change in policy in middle powers like Australia and Sweden. The aim of the paper is to understand how a middle power’s strategic culture can become affected and altered by the perceived real possibility of interstate war looming in the near future. This is done by examining the changes in Australia’s and Sweden’s national defence strategies before and after the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and comparing the similarities and differences in the development of each region’s strategic cultures. The theoretical framework used for the study is strategic culture but also leans on realism due to the two concepts’ strong connection. The study finds that both Australia’s and Sweden’s strategic cultures have drastically been altered. Australia is rethinking its entire strategic culture, and Sweden dropped 200 years of neutrality. The paper finds that there are noticeable differences and similarities between the Indo-Pacific and Europe. In the Indo-Pacific, there is a renewed focus on diplomacy and statecraft and in Europe the development of a Nordic and a European strategic culture is detectable. The findings indicate a more unpredictable and unstable world since states are abandoning core principles they have held onto for decades and even centuries.