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Assessing Crime History as a Predictor: Exploring Hotspots of Violent and Property Crime in Malmö, Sweden
Örebro Univ, Örebro, Sweden; Örebro Univ, Sch Behav Social & Legal Sci, Fakultetsgatan 1, S-70182 Örebro, Sweden.
Malmö University, Faculty of Health and Society (HS), Department of Criminology (KR).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-2145-113X
2025 (English)In: International Criminal Justice Review, ISSN 1057-5677, E-ISSN 1556-3855, Vol. 35, no 1, p. 43-61Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Objectives: Assessing the predictive accuracy of using prior crime, place attributes, ambient population, community structural, and social characteristics, in isolation and combined when forecasting different violent and property crimes. Method: Using multilevel negative binomial regression, crime is forecasted into the subsequent year, in 50-m grid-cells. Incidence rate ratio (IRR), Prediction Accuracy Index (PAI), and Prediction Efficacy Index (PEI*) are interpreted for all combined crime generators and community characteristics. This study is partially a test of a crude version of the Risk Terrain Modeling technique. Results: Where crime has been in the past, the risk for future crime is higher. Where characteristics conducive to crime congregate, the risk for crime is higher. Community structural characteristics and ambient population are important for some crime types. Combining variables increases the accuracy for most crime types, looking at the IRR. Taking the geographical area into account, crime history in combination with both place- and neighborhood characteristics reaches similar accuracy as crime history alone for most crime types and most hotspot cutoffs. Conclusions: Crime history, place-, and neighborhood-level attributes are all important when trying to accurately forecast crime, long-term at the micro-place. Only counting past crimes, however, still does a really good job.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Sage Publications, 2025. Vol. 35, no 1, p. 43-61
Keywords [en]
microplace, prediction-accuracy, prediction-efficiency, violent-crime, property-crime
National Category
Law and Society
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-66094DOI: 10.1177/10575677241230915ISI: 001159140900001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85184672059OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mau-66094DiVA, id: diva2:1840592
Available from: 2024-02-26 Created: 2024-02-26 Last updated: 2025-01-08Bibliographically approved

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Gerell, Manne

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