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Daily Assessment of Acute Dynamic Risk in Paroled Offenders: Prediction, Predictive Accuracy and Intervention Effect
Malmö högskola, Faculty of Health and Society (HS), Department of Criminology (KR).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4542-9463
Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Sweden.
Department of Clinical Sciences, Lund University, Sweden.
Department of Laboratory Medicine, Skåne University Hospital, Lund University, Sweden.
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2017 (English)In: Psychiatry, Psychology and Law, ISSN 1321-8719, E-ISSN 1934-1687, Vol. 24, no 5, p. 715-729Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Few studies have assessed acute dynamic risk repeatedly among paroled offenders to investigate the relationship between changes in acute dynamic risk and recidivism in crime. The present study investigates whether one-month changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony while the participants were still in prison and over 30 consecutive days following parole, predict one-year criminal recidivism, including its predictive accuracy. The study also investigates whether a brief feedback intervention in conjunction with the daily assessments reduces recidivism compared to an assessment-only control group. Changes in five risk factors were found to be associated with increased risk of criminal recidivism after controlling for the results in prison, the initial value after parole, and the intervention. The predictive accuracy is marginally accurate: Summary score (AUC) = .666; Level of stress (AHSS) = .644; Psychiatric symptoms (SCL-8D) = .641; Anxiety symptoms = .673; Severity of most stressful daily event = .690. No differences in one-year recidivism rates were established between the intervention group and the control group. The study shows that daily assessments can usefully be made of dynamic risk factors in paroled offenders.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2017. Vol. 24, no 5, p. 715-729
Keywords [en]
acute dynamic risk, intervention, paroled offenders, prediction, predictive accuracy, randomised controlled trial, recidivism
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-14836DOI: 10.1080/13218719.2017.1308219ISI: 000416581400006PubMedID: 31983984Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85018255351Local ID: 22573OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mau-14836DiVA, id: diva2:1418357
Available from: 2020-03-30 Created: 2020-03-30 Last updated: 2024-06-17Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Ambulatory risk assessment and intervention in the prison services: Using Interactive Voice Response to assess and intervene on acute dynamic risk among prisoners on parole
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Ambulatory risk assessment and intervention in the prison services: Using Interactive Voice Response to assess and intervene on acute dynamic risk among prisoners on parole
2018 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The transition from prison to society is a challenging period for offenders released from prison. Recidivism rates are high, and the offender’s situation can change rapidly. Advances in technology in recent decades have provided new ways for correctional agencies to provide the level of supervision and immediacy needed to help prisoners to successfully re-enter society. One such area of advance is the widespread use of mobile phones and related developments in communication technologies, such as Interactive Voice Response (IVR), an automated telephony system. The overall aim of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility of using IVR to assess and intervene on everyday stress-related acute risk factors for crime among prisoners on parole. Paroled offenders (N=108) performed daily assessment during their first 30 days after leaving prison. Before release, they also completed a baseline assessment of stable risk factors, including personality, substance use problems, and mental health problems. Data on criminal recidivism one year following parole was collected from the Swedish Prison and Parole Service. After release, all subjects were called daily and answered assessment questions. Based on the content of their daily assessments, subjects in the intervention group received immediate feedback and a recommendation by automated telephony, and their probation officers also received a daily report by email. Although the intervention had no effect on criminal recidivism, the intervention group showed greater improvement than the control group on several of the acute dynamic risk factors studied. Several of these factors could predict criminal recidivism with marginal accuracy, and could provide incremental predictive validity beyond the baseline risk level of stable risk factors, i.e. problematic drug use and impulsiveness trait. In conclusion, IVR may be a feasible way to assess and intervene on daily stress-related acute dynamic risk factors among prisoners on parole.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Malmö University, 2018
Series
Malmö University Health and Society Dissertations, ISSN 1653-5383 ; 2018:2
Keywords
acute dynamic risk, intervention, paroled offenders, prediction, randomized controlled trial, recidivism
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-7356 (URN)24452 (Local ID)978-91-7104-896-7 (ISBN)978-91-7104-897-4 (ISBN)24452 (Archive number)24452 (OAI)
Available from: 2020-02-28 Created: 2020-02-28 Last updated: 2020-07-15Bibliographically approved

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Vasiljevic, ZoranBerglund, MatsAndersson, Claes

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