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New satellite-based estimates show significant trends in spring phenology and complex sensitivities to temperature and precipitation at northern European latitudes
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, SE-22362, Lund, Sweden.
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, SE-22362, Lund, Sweden.
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, SE-22362, Lund, Sweden; Agrolab Sverige AB, Backgården, SE-24193, Eslöv, Sweden.
Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Division of Mathematical Statistics, Lund University, SE-22100, Lund, Sweden.
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2019 (English)In: International journal of biometeorology, ISSN 0020-7128, E-ISSN 1432-1254, Vol. 63, no 6, p. 763-775Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Recent climate warming has altered plant phenology at northern European latitudes, but conclusions regarding the spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate are still challenging as quantitative estimates are strongly diverging. To generate consistent estimates of broad-scale spatially continuous spring plant phenology at northern European latitudes (>50 degrees N) from 2000 to 2016, we used a novel vegetation index, the plant phenology index (PPI), derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. To obtain realistic and strong estimates, the phenology trends and their relationships with temperature and precipitation over the past 17years were analyzed using a panel data method. We found that in the studied region the start of the growing season (SOS) has on average advanced by 0.30dayyear(-1). The SOS showed an overall advancement rate of 2.47day degrees C-1 to spring warming, and 0.18daycm(-1) to decreasing precipitation in spring. The previous winter and summer temperature had important effects on the SOS but were spatially heterogeneous. Overall, the onset of SOS was delayed 0.66day degrees C-1 by winter warming and 0.56day degrees C-1 by preceding summer warming. The precipitation in winter and summer influenced the SOS in a relatively weak and complex manner. The findings indicate rapid recent phenological changes driven by combined seasonal climates in northern Europe. Previously unknown spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate drivers are presented that improve our capacity to understand and foresee future climate effects on vegetation.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Springer, 2019. Vol. 63, no 6, p. 763-775
Keywords [en]
Plant phenology index (PPI), Spring phenology trend, Climate sensitivity, Northern European latitudes, Remote sensing
National Category
Natural Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-2254DOI: 10.1007/s00484-019-01690-5ISI: 000467578000005PubMedID: 30805728Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85062153855Local ID: 30114OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mau-2254DiVA, id: diva2:1399007
Available from: 2020-02-27 Created: 2020-02-27 Last updated: 2024-06-17Bibliographically approved

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Jönsson, Per

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