OBJECTIVES: To assess the success rate of spontaneous space closure after extraction of the first permanent molar (FPM) in the maxilla and the mandible, and to identify the factors that make spontaneous space closure most favorable in each.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective records-based cohort study was conducted through a search of the database of the Public Dental Service, Stockholm County Council, Stockholm, for young adults born between 2000 and 2001, who underwent extraction of one or more FPM between 2006 and 2016. A total of 995 extracted teeth were identified, of which 203 teeth in 155 patients met the inclusion criteria.

RESULTS: Of the 203 extracted teeth, 166 (81.8%) did not receive any orthodontic treatment. The success rate for space closure in orthodontically treated patients was 91.9%. The success rate for spontaneous space closure was 84.3%. All unsuccessful spontaneous space closure in the maxilla occurred in patients older than 12 years. The dental developmental stage of the second permanent molar (SPM) had a statistically significant association with spontaneous space closure in the mandible (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS: The success rate of spontaneous space closure was high (84.3%) and was higher in the maxilla (94.1%) than the mandible (74.1%). Age at time of extraction and dental developmental stage of the SPM were significant factors for successful spontaneous space closure in the maxilla and mandible, respectively.