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Predicting Gun Violence in Stockholm, Sweden, Using Sociodemographics, Crime and Drug Market Locations
Malmö universitet, Fakulteten för hälsa och samhälle (HS), Enheten för polisiärt arbete.ORCID-id: 0000-0002-2955-1223
2023 (Engelska)Ingår i: European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research, ISSN 0928-1371, E-ISSN 1572-9869Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

The well-being of neighbourhoods in terms of socioeconomic conditions constitutes an important element in analyses focused on the explanation of crime trends and public safety. Recent developments in Sweden concerning gun violence and open drug scenes are worrying and the police are under a great deal of pressure to resolve the situation in many neighbourhoods, which is in turn affecting Swedish society as a whole. This study focuses on micro areas in terms of sociodemographic factors and the presence of drug markets and gun violence. The aim is to explore the relationship between these factors and what characterises areas that are experiencing the greatest difficulties. The study develops an index for the prediction of gun violence in micro areas, in this study portrayed by vector grids. The findings show an overlap between gun violence and drug markets and that micro areas in that overlap share harsh sociodemographic conditions. The study produces an index indicating the probability that a grid cell would experience gun violence. The index was then validated using recent gun incidents, and was found to have high accuracy. The resulting grids constitute a suitable target for resource allocation by police and other actors. This could facilitate a more accurate and precise focus for measures to prevent areas from becoming—or to disrupt already existing—hot spots for gun violence.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Springer Nature, 2023.
Nyckelord [en]
Open drug scenes, Gun violence, Prediction, Micro areas, Sociodemographics
Nationell ämneskategori
Socialt arbete
Forskningsämne
Kriminologi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-62034DOI: 10.1007/s10610-023-09560-yISI: 001042777000001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85166923324OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mau-62034DiVA, id: diva2:1790018
Forskningsfinansiär
Malmö universitetTillgänglig från: 2023-08-22 Skapad: 2023-08-22 Senast uppdaterad: 2023-12-29Bibliografiskt granskad
Ingår i avhandling
1. Open drug scenes and the merging of policing practice and research: a pracademic approach
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Open drug scenes and the merging of policing practice and research: a pracademic approach
2022 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

Policing research has had an upswing as the evidence-based policing movement has grown stronger and entered police practises worldwide. Within the evidence-based policing (EBP) approach, practically and academically skilled individuals, pracademics, have attracted attention as facilitating the merging of policing practice and research.

Using principles from EBP, and with a special focus on translating between policing practice, policy and research, this thesis aims to explore the characteristics of illicit drug markets with a place-based focus and to link this to the enhancement of EBP in Sweden. The theoretical base of the thesis is drawn from disorganization theory, routine activity theory and situational action theory, and these theories are combined with empirical studies from the research field of drug markets.

Drug markets are defined as open drug scenes (ODSs) in this pracademic thesis, which includes two empirical studies of patterns that characterize ODSs, one randomized controlled trial (RCT) of a law enforcement tactic at an ODS, and one case study of the impact of the pracademic research approach. The findings show that there are almost 50 ODSs in Stockholm County, which are characterized by patterns of crime concentration, a gun violence overlap, and associations with perceptions of unsafety. Three types of ODSs were identified, providing a basis for the tailoring of future interventions based on area characteristics, ODS stability, levels of violence, and gang activity. Micro places associated with ODSs and gun violence were found to be characterized by harsh social conditions and high levels of crime. A predictive index was created to forecast micro places at which gun violence may occur, and the prediction was enhanced when ODSs were included as predictive locations. The RCT, which was completed at a well-known ODS in the inner city of Stockholm, showed a slight but non-significant effect of the police conducting motivational talks with offenders, which gave rise to questions regarding the method’s effectiveness. The case study of the RCT process found frustration in police departments to be a possible door-opener for research. Ease of implementation was associated with the research having credibility among police officers, which was achieved by including the needs of practice in research questions and through the role played by the pracademic researcher.

This thesis argues for making use of pracademics to bridge the research-practice gap, a focus on ODSs, and the testing and tracking of methods such as hot spots policing, with an emphasis on properly implemented evidence-based methods and on the goals of enforcement strategies as a means of improving the effectiveness of drug-market policing.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Malmö: Malmö universitet, 2022. s. 106
Serie
Malmö University Health and Society Dissertations, ISSN 1653-5383 ; 2022:3
Nyckelord
Policing, crime, Open drug scenes, illicit drug markets, evidence based policing, pracademic, criminology, place based criminology, translational criminology, gun violence, crime concentration, crime mapping
Nationell ämneskategori
Juridik och samhälle
Forskningsämne
Kriminologi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-49789 (URN)10.24834/isbn.9789178772506 (DOI)978-91-7877-250-6 (ISBN)978-91-7877-249-0 (ISBN)
Disputation
2022-03-11, Aulan, Fakulteten Hälsa och Samhälle, Jan Waldenströms gata 25, Malmö, 14:00 (Engelska)
Opponent
Handledare
Anmärkning

Paper II and III in dissertation as manuscripts, paper II under the title "Open drug scene: gun violence overlap and prediction of gun violence at micro places in Stockholm"

Forskningsfinansiär: Polismyndigheten

Tillgänglig från: 2022-02-02 Skapad: 2022-02-02 Senast uppdaterad: 2024-02-23Bibliografiskt granskad

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