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Incremental validity of ambulatory assessment of acute dynamic risk in predicting time to recidivism among prisoners on parole
Malmö University, Faculty of Health and Society (HS), Department of Criminology (KR).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-4542-9463
Faculty of Medicine, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Psychiatry, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
Malmö University, Faculty of Health and Society (HS), Department of Criminology (KR).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9819-2474
2020 (English)In: Psychology, Crime and Law, ISSN 1068-316X, E-ISSN 1477-2744, Vol. 26, no 6, p. 614-630Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This study investigates the incremental validity of changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony over 30 consecutive days following parole, for predicting time to recidivism during the following year. Before release, the participants completed self-report assessment of some stable risk factors - impulsiveness and history of problematic substance use - as well as an assessment of symptoms of anxiety experienced during the weeks prior to release. Analysis of the baseline assessments showed that impulsiveness and a history of problematic substance use, but not pre-release symptoms of anxiety, were associated with recidivism during the parole year. Growth modelling using a linear mixed model was used to assess whether inmates on parole showed changes in acute dynamic risk factors during the first month following release. Individual growth model slopes and intercept were then extracted and used as covariates in a series of Cox regression analyses to test whether changes in acute dynamic risk factors could provide incremental predictive validity beyond baseline stable risk factors. Changes in five dynamic risk factors were associated with an increased risk of recidivism, of which daily drug use and daily summary score showed incremental predictive improvement beyond impulsiveness and history of problematic drug use.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Taylor & Francis, 2020. Vol. 26, no 6, p. 614-630
National Category
Psychiatry
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-13833DOI: 10.1080/1068316X.2019.1708356ISI: 000505442600001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85078631030OAI: oai:DiVA.org:mau-13833DiVA, id: diva2:1416474
Available from: 2020-03-24 Created: 2020-03-24 Last updated: 2024-06-18Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Ambulatory risk assessment and intervention in the prison services: Using Interactive Voice Response to assess and intervene on acute dynamic risk among prisoners on parole
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Ambulatory risk assessment and intervention in the prison services: Using Interactive Voice Response to assess and intervene on acute dynamic risk among prisoners on parole
2018 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

The transition from prison to society is a challenging period for offenders released from prison. Recidivism rates are high, and the offender’s situation can change rapidly. Advances in technology in recent decades have provided new ways for correctional agencies to provide the level of supervision and immediacy needed to help prisoners to successfully re-enter society. One such area of advance is the widespread use of mobile phones and related developments in communication technologies, such as Interactive Voice Response (IVR), an automated telephony system. The overall aim of this thesis is to investigate the feasibility of using IVR to assess and intervene on everyday stress-related acute risk factors for crime among prisoners on parole. Paroled offenders (N=108) performed daily assessment during their first 30 days after leaving prison. Before release, they also completed a baseline assessment of stable risk factors, including personality, substance use problems, and mental health problems. Data on criminal recidivism one year following parole was collected from the Swedish Prison and Parole Service. After release, all subjects were called daily and answered assessment questions. Based on the content of their daily assessments, subjects in the intervention group received immediate feedback and a recommendation by automated telephony, and their probation officers also received a daily report by email. Although the intervention had no effect on criminal recidivism, the intervention group showed greater improvement than the control group on several of the acute dynamic risk factors studied. Several of these factors could predict criminal recidivism with marginal accuracy, and could provide incremental predictive validity beyond the baseline risk level of stable risk factors, i.e. problematic drug use and impulsiveness trait. In conclusion, IVR may be a feasible way to assess and intervene on daily stress-related acute dynamic risk factors among prisoners on parole.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Malmö University, 2018
Series
Malmö University Health and Society Dissertations, ISSN 1653-5383 ; 2018:2
Keywords
acute dynamic risk, intervention, paroled offenders, prediction, randomized controlled trial, recidivism
National Category
Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:mau:diva-7356 (URN)24452 (Local ID)978-91-7104-896-7 (ISBN)978-91-7104-897-4 (ISBN)24452 (Archive number)24452 (OAI)
Available from: 2020-02-28 Created: 2020-02-28 Last updated: 2020-07-15Bibliographically approved

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Vasiljevic, ZoranAndersson, Claes

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