Self-driving cars enable dynamic shared mobility, where customers are independent of schedules and fixed stops. This study aims to investigate the potential effects shared mobility can have on future transportation. We simulate multiple scenarios to analyze the effects different service designs might have on vehicle kilometers, on the required number of shared vehicles, on the potential replacement of private cars, and on service metrics such as waiting times, travel times, and detour levels. To demonstrate how simulation can be used to analyze future mobility, we present a case study of the city of Gothenburg in Sweden, where we model travel demand in the morning hours of a workday. The results show that a significant decrease of vehicle kilometers can be achieved if all private car trips are replaced by rideshare and that shared vehicles can potentially replace at least 5 private cars during the morning peak.

For acute medical conditions, for instance strokes, the time until the start of the treatment is a crucial factor to prevent a fatal outcome and to facilitate the recovery of the patient’s health. Hence, the planning and optimization of patient logistics is of high importance to ensure prompt access to healthcare facilities in case of medical emergencies. Computer simulation can be used to investigate the effects of different stroke logistics policies under realistic conditions without jeopardizing the health of the patients. The success of such policies greatly depends on the behavior of the individuals. Hence, agent-based simulation is particularly well-suited as it imitates human behavior and decision-making by means of artificial intelligence, which allows for investigating the effects of policies under different conditions. Agent-based simulation requires the generation of a realistic synthetic population, that adequately represents the population that shall be investigated such that reliable conclusions can be drawn from the simulation results. In this article, we propose a process for generating an artificial population of potential stroke patients that can be used to investigate the effects of stroke logistics policies using agent-based simulation. To illustrate how this process can be applied, we present the results from a case study in the region of Skåne in southern Sweden, where a synthetic population of stroke patients with realistic mobility behavior is simulated. 

In rural areas with low demand, demand responsive transport (DRT) can provide an alternative to the regular public transport bus lines, which are expensive to operate in such conditions. With simulation, we explore the potential effects of introducing a DRT service that replaces existing bus lines in Lolland municipality in Denmark, assuming that the existing demand remains unchanged. We set up the DRT service in such a way that its service quality (in terms of waiting time and in-vehicle time) is comparable to the replaced buses. The results show that a DRT service can be more cost efficient than regular buses and can produce significantly less CO2 emissions when the demand level is low. Additionally, we analyse the demand density at which regular buses become more cost efficient and explore how the target service quality of a DRT service can affect operational characteristics. Overall, we argue that DRT could be a more sustainable mode of public transport in low demand areas.

The increasing popularity of e-commerce requires efficient solutions for the provision of last mile logistics. There are different approaches for delivering parcels, e.g., home delivery, service points, or parcel lockers, which have different advantages and disadvantages for customers and logistics providers in terms of flexibility, accessibility, and operating costs. We have studied a novel transportation solution where electric vehicles dynamically set up smart cargo boxes, from which customers can fetch their delivery at any time of the day. This provides customers with a more flexible access to their packages and allows the service provider to deliver the parcels more efficiently. In this article, we present the results of a feasibility study conducted in Västra Hamnen, Malmö (Sweden). The developed simulation model shows that smart boxes not only are a viable approach for efficient last mile deliveries, but also result in considerably smaller travel distances compared to conventional package delivery.

When planning interventions to limit the spread of Covid-19, the current state of knowledge about the disease and specific characteristics of the population need to be considered. Simulations can facilitate policy making as they take prevailing circumstances into account. Moreover, they allow for the investigation of the potential effects of different interventions using an artificial population. Agent-based Social Simulation (ABSS) is argued to be particularly useful as it can capture the behavior of and interactions between individuals. We performed a systematic literature reviewand identified 126 articles that describe ABSS of Covid-19 transmission processes. Our reviewshowed that ABSS is widely used for investigating the spread of Covid-19. Existing models are very heterogeneous with respect to their purpose, the number of simulated individuals, and the modeled geographical region, as well as how they model transmission dynamics, disease states, human behavior, and interventions. To this end, a discrepancy can be identified between the needs of policy makers and what is implemented by the simulation models. This also includes how thoroughly the models consider and represent the real world, e.g. in terms of factors that affect the transmission probability or how humans make decisions. Shortcomingswere also identified in the transparency of the presented models, e.g. in terms of documentation or availability, as well as in their validation, which might limit their suitability for supporting decision-making processes. We discuss how these issues can be mitigated to further establish ABSS as a powerful tool for crisis management.

For patients suffering from a stroke, the time until the start of the treatment is a crucial factor with respect to the recovery from this condition. In rural regions, transporting the patient to an adequate hospital typically delays the diagnosis and treatment of a stroke, worsening its prognosis. To reduce the time to treatment, different policies can be applied. This includes, for instance, the use of Mobile Stroke Units (MSUs), which are specialized ambulances that can provide adequate care closer to where the stroke occurred. To simulate and assess different stroke logistics policies, such as the use of MSUs, a major challenge is the realistic modeling of the patients. In this article, we present an approach for generating an artificial population of stroke patients to simulate when and where strokes occur. We apply the model to the region of Skåne, where we investigated the relevance of travel behavior on the spatial distribution of stroke patients.

This article demonstrates an approach to the simulation of Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) – a flexible transport mode that typically operates as a combination of taxi and bus modes. Travellers request individual trips and DRT is capable of adjusting its routes or schedule to the needs of travellers. It has been seen as a part of the public transport network, which has the potential to reduce operational costs of public transport services, to provide better service quality for population groups with limited mobility and to improve transport fairness. However, a DRT service needs to be thoroughly planned to target the intended user groups, attract a sufficient demand level and maintain reasonable operational costs. As the demand for DRT is dynamic and heterogeneous, it is difficult to simulate it with a macro approach. To address this problem, we develop and evaluate an individual-based simulation comprising models of traveller behaviour for both supply and demand sides. Travellers choose a trip alternative with a mode choice model and DRT vehicle routing utilises a model of travellers’ mode choice behaviour to optimise routes. This allows capturing supply-side operational costs and demand-side service quality for every individual, what allows for designing a personalised service that can prioritise needy groups of travellers improving transport fairness. By simulating different setups of DRT services, the simulator can be used as a decision support tool.

When simulation models shall be used to support decision-making, the trustworthiness of the results need to be ensured. Usually, models are validated against real-world data. Yet, in the ongoing pandemic, there is a lack of respective data that can be used to validate the model’s behaviour. To overcome this issue, this chapter discusses the validation of simulation models for the Covid-19 pandemic by comparing their results among each other. To this end, we present a formal comparison between the existing behaviour-based epidemiological model that was developed at the University of Oxford and the ASSOCC model.

The general idea of tracking and tracing apps is that they track the contacts of users so that in case a user tests positive for COVID-19, all the other users that she has been in contact with get a warning signal that they have potentially been in contact with the COVID-19 virus. This is, to quarantine potential carriers of the virus even before they show symptoms. We set up a scenario in which we test the effects the introduction of such an app has on the dynamics of infection with varying amounts of app users. Running the experiments resulted in a slightly lower peak of infections for higher app usages and the total amount of infected individuals over the course of the whole run decreased not more than 10% in any case. The app seems mainly effective in decreasing contacts and infections in public spaces (except hospitals) while increasing the contacts and infections at home.

The introduction of this book sets the stage of performing social simulations in a crisis. The contents of the book are based on the experience of creating a large scale and complex social simulation for the Covid-19 crisis. However, the contents are reaching much further than just this experience. We will show the general contribution that social simulations based on fundamental social-psychological principles can have in times of crises. In times of big societal changes due to a pandemic or other disaster, these simulations can give handles to support decision makers in their difficult task to act in a very short time with many uncertainties. Besides giving our results, we also will indicate why the results are trustworthy and interesting. Finally we also look what challenges should be picked up to convert the successful project into a sustainable research area.